Awards season comes up fast. With the beginning of the film award season just around the corner, it’s time to predict the Emmys, which are television’s biggest awards. Note that the academy switched up their awards slightly this year: Supporting Actor and Actress were already handed out at the Creative Arts Emmys last night, so I will not be predicting those (I would’ve predicted Death By Lightning’s Nick Offerman and DTF St. Louis’ Linda Cardellini for actor and actress, respectively; David Harbour and Linda Cardellini, both for DTF, won, so I was semi-accurate!) Without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win at the 78th Emmy Awards, which air September 14 on NBC.
Predicted winners are highlighted in bold.
Outstanding drama series
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“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“The Gilded Age” (HBO Max)
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO Max)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max)
“Pluribus” (Apple TV+)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
“Your Friends & Neighbors” (Apple TV+)
Last year, I predicted that The Pitt would triumph over Severance, and I cheered when I guessed correctly! This year, The Pitt is no longer the dark horse; it is the one to beat. While I loved A Knight of Seven Kingdoms, Slow Horses, and Your Friends & Neighbors, they don’t have much of a chance; Pluribus, created by Breaking Bad’s Vince Gilligan, has the best chance of beating the medical drama. But ironically, we should not expect too much drama from this category, as The Pitt remains one of the strongest frontrunners in the entire race.
Outstanding lead actor in a drama series
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
Mark Ruffalo, “Task”
Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
Similarly, The Pitt’s front man, Noah Wyle, has the best chance of taking home the trophy for Best Actor in a Drama for a second year in a row. I would’ve loved to see Seven Kingdom’s Peter Claffey get nominated, but maybe next season. Four-time Oscar nominee Mark Ruffalo could be a dark horse; but this category seems pretty set in stone.
Outstanding lead actress in a drama series
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”
Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments”
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus”
Zendaya, “Euphoria”
Zendaya has won this category twice previously, and if she won this year, she would become the first actress in a drama series to sweep the category for every year she’s eligible. Given Euphoria’s lackluster reception this year, though, that might not be the case. Instead, Rhea Seehorn seems to be the likely winner in this category, who truly gives an electric performance on Pluribus, often acting alone on the show as she plays a woman seemingly immune to a hive mind virus.
Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series
Patrick Ball, “The Pitt”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt”
Gerran Howell, “The Pitt”
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses”
Tom Pelphrey, “Task”
Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus”
Supporting actor and actress in a drama have the same conundrum: so many actors from The Pitt are nominated, the vote could very well be split for all of them, leading another performer such as Tom Pelphrey to take the trophy. I think Patrick Ball will win for Supporting Actor though, as his plot dealing with coming back to work at the ER after a stint in rehab received much acclaim.
Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series
Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt”
Fiona Dourif, “The Pitt”
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat”
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”
Sepideh Moafi, “The Pitt”
Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”
Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus”
Katherine LaNasa took the win last year for nurse Dana Evans, and she could very well repeat this year. However, the academy may want to honor another of her co-stars, so for that reason I am going to pick Sepideh Moafi, who portrayed Dr. Baran Al-Hashimi, a newcomer cast member on season 2 of The Pitt who had a breakout season.
Outstanding comedy series
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“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX)
“Hacks” (HBO Max)
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV+)
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
“Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV+)
This category is no laughing matter. Rather, it’s a nail biter between Hacks, which recently released its final season, and Widow’s Bay, a brand new horror-comedy that was Apple TV’s breakout hit this past year. My money’s on Widow’s Bay; horror is having a moment (Amy Madigan won at the Oscars for her performance in Weapons this year), and Widow’s Bay is genuinely laugh-out-loud funny (Stephen Root’s description of the sea hag in episode 3 and Matthew Rhys’ befuddled expressions all throughout the series had me crying tears). Hacks has been a dark horse though before: it beat out expected champion The Bear in 2024. We’ll see who takes the cake at the ceremony.
Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “Wonder Man”
Steve Carell, “Rooster”
Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay”
Jason Segel, “Shrinking”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
A truly great roster of leading men. Jason Segel makes me laugh one minute and cry the next on Shrinking. Steve Carell has shockingly never won an Emmy, while Yahya Abdul-Mateen II won for Watchmen in 2020. But I think Matthew Rhys, the lead actor of Widow’s Bay, has this in the bag. He won for Best Actor in a Drama for The Americans in 2018, and Widow’s Bay shows his incredible range. His often-wordless expressions of exasperation truly sell his role as a mayor who doesn’t believe his town is cursed–even when it most definitely is.
Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Jean Smart could be the first actress in history to sweep this category for every season she is eligible. Her speeches are often heartfelt and hilarious, and I completely expect to see her on the stage once again.
Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series
Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks”
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
Stephen Root, “Widow’s Bay”
Michael Urie, “Shrinking”
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Man, this is a tough category. Nick Offerman was amazing as an ex-wrestler and addict in Margo’s Got Money Troubles–but enough people may not have seen Margo this year due to Widow’s Bay being Apple TV’s biggest breakout hit this past year. Stephen Root has been in literally everything but has never gotten an award…could this be his year? Similarly, Harrison Ford is underestimated at every awards show–how is it he only has ONE Oscar nomination??? (For the 1985 film Witness; go watch it). I want to say Harrison Ford just because I think he absolutely deserves it for his role in Shrinking as Paul, a therapist with Parkinson’s disease. But just like last year how Jeff Hiller’s win came out of absolutely nowhere (to everyone’s delight), this category is kind of up in the air.
Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series
Dale Dickey, “Widow’s Bay”
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Kate O’Flynn, “Widow’s Bay”
Michelle Pfeiffer, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
Megan Stalter, “Hacks”
Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
Why are the supporting actor categories always so tough? Hannah Einbinder won last year, and now she could split the vote with her co-star Megan Stalter; Dale Dickey is a long-storied character actor (anyone else remember Patty the Daytime Hooker on My Name is Earl??); similarly, Michelle Pfeiffer was nominated for multiple Academy Awards in the 1990s. But I think the trophy this year will go to Kate O’Flynn, who had a true breakout character as Patricia, Mayor Tom Loftis’ assistant, on Widow’s Bay. She delivered a singular performance in the episode “Beach Reads” where her character threw a party for the town and accidentally hypnotized the population with a cursed ritual book. I promise this show is funny though–it’s only mildly terrifying sometimes!
Outstanding limited or anthology series
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“All Her Fault” (Peacock)
“The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
“Beef” (Netflix)
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” (Hulu)
This is a hard one as well because no limited series really stood out in the way that Adolescence or Baby Reindeer did. I’ve been torn between DTF St. Louis and Beef, the latter of which won this category in 2024. However, after David Harbour and Linda Cardellini won supporting actor and actress for DTF at the Creative Arts Emmys, I’ve leaning towards this show to win.
Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie
Riz Ahmed, “Bait”
Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit”
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”
Oscar Isaac, “Beef”
Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me”
Could Matthew Rhys become the first performer to win acting awards in Drama, Comedy, and Limited Series? I’m counting on it here, though an interesting fact is that Jason Bateman has also had the chance, being nominated for Comedy as Michael Bluth in Arrested Development, Drama as Marty Bird in Ozark, and Limited Series here as Vince Friedken (but never winning in those categories previously). Additionally, Bateman leads the field out of everyone at the Emmys with four nominations this year (including in directing, producing, and also supporting actor), but much like Marty Supreme at last year’s Academy Awards, he may end up going home empty handed.
Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie
Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me”
Sally Field, “Remarkably Bright Creatures”
Carey Mulligan, “Beef”
Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault”
Sally Field is the first actress in years to be nominated for a performance in a movie and not a limited series–the last was Laura Dern in 2018 for The Tale. Field gives a passionate performance as Tova Sullivan, a woman who lost her son years ago and reconnects with him in surprising ways (I highly recommend the book as well). Sarah Pidgeon had a breakout year appearing as Carolyn Bessette in Ryan Murphy’s Love Story, so she could also win, but I’m predicting Field, who has a storied career with two Academy Awards.
The Pop Culture Pundit 
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