The Pop Culture Pundit

It is finally upon us: the 2025 Oscars will be airing March 2, 2025! In an unpredictable awards year, there is no Oppenheimer-type frontrunner. The awards show love has largely been split between Anora, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez, but with the latter seemingly out of the running for Best Picture after a scandal from their lead actress, it appears the former two will be going head to head. Who will win the day–a film about a love story between a stripper and a Russian oligarch’s son, or a movie about gossipy church leaders? Here are my predictions for Best Picture, Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress, along with some other final thoughts. 

Note: bolded nominees denote my predicted winner for each category. 

Best Picture

Anora 

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

I’m Still Here

Nickel Boys

The Substance

Wicked 

My pick for Best Picture is Conclave, a drama about gossipy religious leaders tasked with picking the next pope (it’s basically The Real Housewives of the Vatican). With wins at the BAFTAs for Best Film and the SAG Award for Best Ensemble, I think Conclave could come out on top–plus, its ending is both surprising and relevant, which could be another reason voters want to honor it. 

Potential Spoiler: That said, many awards pundits are favoring Anora–with wins at the DGAs and PGAs, plus a BAFTA for lead Mikey Madison, there are a lot of reasons this drama chronicling the love story between a sex worker and a Russian oligarch’s son that explodes spectacularly could also be crowned victor. In an unpredictable awards year, any film could take the cake–but that’s what makes it exciting to watch! 

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice 

Looking at this category we have a mix of nominees. Colman Domingo was similarly nominated for Best Actor last year (losing to Cillian Murphy), Ralph Fiennes is a 3-time nominee, and Sebastian Stan won a Golden Globe earlier this year, but for a different movie. The most likely winner of the night is Adrien Brody, as he’s nearly swept the awards circuit with a BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice Award. This would make him a rare two-time Oscar winner. 

Potential Spoiler: The only major award Adrien Brody didn’t win was the SAG Award for Best Actor in a Motion Picture, which went to Timothée Chalamet for his portrayal of Bob Dylan. While the SAG Awards don’t have an impact on the Oscars (as voting had already closed), this could foreshadow the Academy’s vote. The Oscars don’t usually pick younger actors for this award–Chalamet would become the youngest winner in the category, beating Adrien Brody for this title when he won 20+ years ago for The Pianist–but after a charming awards campaign filled with fun fashion, flirty banter, and a show-stopping SNL performance, Timmy Tim could beat the odds. 

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Kara Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Over the last few years, the Academy has largely awarded Best Actress to overdue winners (including Michelle Yeoh and Jessica Chastain). No one is more deserving of awards recognition than Moore, whose decades-long career as a box office draw is finally being appreciated in the industry. Her performance in The Substance is largely about Hollywood itself and is quite transformative (the makeup!!)–two things that the Academy loves. Her Golden Globes speech was also highly praised, which could be another influencing factor.

^{Golden Globes/via YouTube}

Potential Spoiler: Mikey Madison has gotten raves for her performance in Anora as the titular character and won at the BAFTAs, which can sometimes foreshadow the winner at the Oscars. Anora has been an Oscar contender from the beginning, while The Substance was more of a surprise this season, so the winner for Best Actress will probably come down to the wire. 

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice 

Finally, we come to the categories that are actually easy to predict! Kieran Culkin has absolutely swept the awards circuit this year due to his performance in A Real Pain, and also possibly because every speech he gives is a darn delight. If Culkin wins the Oscar, he would be halfway to an EGOT–maybe Succession will be revived on Broadway so he can win a Tony? It’s practically a Shakespearian tragicomedy begging to be on stage. 

Potential Spoiler: I honestly don’t think there are any…but it’d be hilarious if Jeremy Strong, Culkin’s former on-screen brother, won for his performance in The Apprentice instead. 

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Similar to Culkin, Saldaña has swept nearly every Supporting Actress Award this year. Expect her to pick up the Oscar too. 

Potential Spoiler: Could Ariana Grane win for Wicked? Could Isabella Rossellini clinch the award for Conclave? Both are probably unlikely, but there’s always a slight chance for an upset. 

Important Oscar Questions

Will Wicked win ANYTHING???

“Popular” is one word that unfortunately cannot describe Wicked at awards shows this year. Though it earned over $700 million dollars at the box office, it has unfortunately been the Barbie of this year, only winning “Box Office Achievement” at the Golden Globes. However, Wicked has been nominated in many technical categories, making wins in Best Costume and Production Design likely. Here’s hoping the Academy will hold more space for Part 2. 

What’s the Deal with Best Original Song This Year? 

Best Original Song is complicated this year. Despite the popularity of the songs from Wicked, none of them were written for the movie itself–they were written for the Broadway musical, thus excluding them from consideration. The Academy also made the decision to cut the traditional performance of nominated songs from the ceremony and instead have Grande and Erivo perform (most likely singing Wicked songs), along with LISA, Doja Cat and Raye…wait, maybe they’re singing “Born Again” in honor of Conclave? 

Wait a minute– “Bye Bye Bye” wasn’t an original song from Deadpool and Wolverine?

Despite what is now says on Spotify, no. Though if you want to treat yourself to another riveting dance routine set to the song, check out Danny Amendola and Whitney Carson’s routine from last season of Dancing with the Stars (they should honestly be guests at the Oscars, because not only did they dance to a hit movie song from this year, they did a fabulous routine to “I’m Just Ken” and we could really use that energy again at this ceremony). 

^{Dancing with the Stars/via YouTube}

Are there any films you want to take a moment to personally recognize on your blog? 

Yes, I do, thank you for asking. Challengers was obviously snubbed in every category. I also wish there was a Best Stunts Category to recognize The Fall Guy, amongst other action movies, but there is not (at least Vulture takes time to acknowledge and advocate for this every year). Finally, Juror #2 and Hit Man were tragically relegated to streaming when both should have been big box office draws–and Oscar winners at that. 

Do you think Ryan Gosling will crash the red carpet as Beavis from his viral Beavis and Butthead SNL skit again? 

We can only hope. If he doesn’t, maybe Domingo will? 

^{Attractions Magazine/via YouTube}