The Pop Culture Pundit

The Oscars are finally upon us. It has been an unpredictable year for awards–almost none of the major categories feel like they are 100% locked in going into the ceremony. The biggest question is which film will win Best Picture–will it be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, in which Leonardo DiCaprio plays an ex-vigilante on the run and trying to save his daughter from an authoritarian leader, or Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, a vampire-musical mash-up set against the backdrop of 1930s Mississippi? Both films feel relevant, and either could walk away with the trophy. Here are my predictions for Best Picture, Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress, along with some other final thoughts. 

Note: bolded nominees denote my predicted winner for each category. 

Best Picture

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

^{Warner Bros. via YouTube}

Best Picture is really a competition between two films: One Battle After Another and Sinners. Both are produced by Warner Bros, which is quite unique having the same studio campaign for two films. Regardless, I think this race is interesting to watch this year. In one corner, we have One Battle After Another, which has swept almost every major award from the Critics’ Choice to the Golden Globes to the BAFTAs, as well as DGA, PGA, and WGA (that’s a lot of acronyms right there). This is Paul Thomas Anderson’s tenth film, and the fact that’s he never won the top honor is shocking–this may finally be the night he gets his flowers. In the other corner, we have Sinners, clearly the most popular in terms of the box office with nearly $400 million, as well as name recognition (almost everyone I asked about Best Picture had never heard of One Battle). Sinners also won Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG awards, so that’s one less acronym to worry about now). Yet I’m still predicting that One Battle After Another will be victorious, as it’s clear from the amount of precursor awards it’s won it is beloved by the industry. 

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

^{Warner Bros. via YouTube}

Going into this awards season, this felt like Chalamet’s to lose, especially after his somewhat controversial loss at last year’s Oscars. It certainly started that way with wins at the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes. But then the Austin Butler School of Method Acting caught up with Chalamet–except rather than the ghost of Elvis Presley’s accent haunting him, Marty’s unlikeable persona did. People started criticizing Chalamet for his perceived cockiness–or loss of whimsy, as my work colleague put it. Though his ballet scandal shouldn’t have impacted his Oscar chances as voting was already closed, the loss of two important precursors did. Rarely has a Best Actor Oscar been won without a BAFTA or a SAG award–and Chalamet didn’t win either this year. Combine this with the fact that the Academy rarely awards this category to nominees under 35. Given his Actor Awards win, I am predicting Michael B. Jordan will take this award for his transformative work as twins fighting vampiric forces. Jordan has had an illustrious career, and there’s no doubt he would give another great speech. 

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

^{Focus Features via YouTube}

Unlike last year, when precursor awards were split between Demi Moore for The Substance and Mikey Madison for Anora, Jessie Buckley has swept every trophy. If Buckley doesn’t win, it’d be the shock of the night. This feels like the only acting category that’s locked in. 

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

And we’re back to another category that feels uncertain. The awards for this have largely been split between Jacob Elordi, Stellan Skarsgard, and Sean Penn. However, I think the scales are tipping in Penn’s favor–he has won the BAFTA and Actor Awards, and with two former Academy Awards wins, this could bring him to his third victory. This could also work against him, however–the Oscars may want to award someone else, and a good choice would be Stellan Skarsgård, a respected actor with a long-storied career (how is this is first nom??), as well as the patriarch of the Skarsgård acting family. Penn could also split the vote with his One Battle co-star Benicio Del Toro, whose kind, endearing Sensei Sergio gave One Battle an extra spark of charisma. Despite these factors, my bets are still on Penn–the Oscars love physical transformations, and boy does he have one in the last leg of the film. Let’s just hope he shows up to collect his award this time.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

^{Warner Bros. via YouTube}

Aaaannd here we have another unpredictable category! This is the hardest one in my books. My heart says Teyana Taylor, whose performance in One Battle After Another continued to captivate even after she left the screen. But my brain says Amy Madigan, a respected industry veteran whose last Oscar nomination was in 1986 (exactly forty years ago). If she won, it’d be a record-breaking feat. But it’s really a toss-up between her, Taylor, and Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku, as all have won precursor awards. 

Other Thoughts

Judging by your predictions, it looks like a lot of categories are up in the air. Are there any others that feel locked in?

Yes, thank you for asking. Best Animated Feature will surely go to KPop Demon Hunters, as will Best Original Song for the film’s #1 hit “Golden.” For Best Sound, I think F1 is on a similar path to Top Gun: Maverick and will win the award (fun fact: they have the same director, Joseph Kosinski). Avatar: The Way of Water will win Best Visual Effects–the previous two Avatar movies did, so this should be locked in. And I think Paul Thomas Anderson will finally win his elusive Best Director award for One Battle After Another. 

What Celebrity Guests Do You Think We’ll See at the Ceremony?

A fun question! PTA is married to SNL legend Maya Rudolph, so we can expect to see her. Hamnet’s Paul Mescal is dating pop singer Gracie Abrams, so we’ll probably see her too. And Kylie Jenner has become a staple at awards shows with Timothée Chalamet…maybe they’ll wear orange in honor of Marty Supreme? 

Are there any snubs you would like to recognize on your blog?

Odessa A’Zion was simply magnificent in Marty Supreme. I am honestly shocked Wicked did not get any nominations–I at least expected crafts nods in Production and Costume–which means the Jonathan Bailey movie that did get nominated this year was Jurassic World Rebirth (for Best Visual Effects), which I honestly find hilarious. Finally, Paul Mescal probably should have been recognized for Shakespeare in Hamnet, but do not fear: he could get another nom as Paul McCartney in the upcoming Beatles biopics when all four films in the series drop in 2028.