The Pop Culture Pundit

Another year, another Globes. This year’s host Nikki Glaser was undoubtedly better than last year’s MC Jo Koy, giving us a hilarious parody of Wicked‘s “Popular” with the Conclave remix “Pope-ular” as well as jokes that were actually funny, such as nobody watching NBC’s streaming service Peacock and Adam Sandler’s pronunciation of Timothée Chalamet’s last name (to which Sandler himself responded while in the audience–perfectly matching Glaser’s cadence and energy). 

Now that one of the pre-Oscar awards ceremonies is done, we have to ask–what is the state of the race? Here are my biggest takeaways from the night. 

Is Wicked the Barbie of this year? 

Last year, Barbie was one of the most popular movies of the year, grossing over a billion dollars at the box office and causing many theatergoers to dress in pink. This year, Wicked is mirroring the film–not just in style and popularity, but also awards. Like Barbie, Wicked won “Box Office Achievement” at the Globes, while it was bested by Emilia Pérez in Best Picture–Musical or Comedy (Barbie, meanwhile, was beat by Poor Things). So, where does Wicked go from here? Despite being a musical, it’s ineligible for Best Original Song (because its songs are adapted from the Broadway musical), meaning it won’t win in similar vein to Billie Eilish’s wistful “What Was I Made For?” Wicked could win for Best Costumes, Set Design, or Makeup at the Oscars–though Barbie lost in all three of these categories with the first two going to Poor Things, signaling the Oscars’ penchant for awarding more “historical”-set films in the technical categories. Furthermore, similar to Greta Gerwig, Wicked director John M. Chu could be snubbed in the category. At least Wicked will have another chance to take home more hardware when the sequel drops later this year. 

The Best Actress Race Shake-Up

Mikey Madison and Nicole Kidman were both expected to take home the Best Actress–Musical or Comedy and Best Actress–Drama awards, respectively. Instead, Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres took home the awards for their work in The Substance and I’m Still Here. These surprises definitely shake up the frontrunners for the Oscars. I think Demi Moore has a better chance of getting nominated for her first (and well deserved!!!) Oscar nom, while Fernanda Torres brings a new name to the game completely. I have a feeling Angelina Jolie, who has been on critics’ predictions lists all season, will be left out of the Oscars for her work in Maria even though she was nominated at the Globes (and despite her previous Academy Award win in 2000). Given this, I am predicting the Best Actress nominees for the Oscars will be Cynthia Erivo for Wicked, Karla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez, Nicole Kidman for Babygirl, Demi Moore for The Substance, and Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here. This is also notable as the three of the five were nominated in the Musical or Comedy category at the Globes when usually the Globes’ Drama awards are usually better indicators of Oscar winners. Hey, we could all use a laugh in these times so I’m all for it. 

What About Best Actor? 

With most of the female Oscar frontrunners being placed in Best Musical or Comedy at the Globes, this leaves us with the male actors. Adrien Brody won for The Brutalist in Best Actor–Drama, while Sebastian Stan won for A Different Man in Best Actor–Musical or Comedy (it should be noted Stan was also nominated for Best Actor–Drama for his work as a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice). Looking at the other nominees in the Best Actor–Drama category, I believe five of the nominees here will be nominated for the Oscars–the already-mentioned Brody, as well as Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown, Daniel Craig for Queer, Colman Domingo for Sing Sing, and Ralph Fiennes for Conclave, leaving the Best Actor–Musical or Comedy as less of an indicator of who will win an Oscar this year, which is the opposite of the Actress category. Apologies to double-Globe nominee Sebastian Stan–your day for an Oscar will come soon! I do think Glen Powell should still be recognized for his work in Hit Man, though! Netflix, why did you not market this gem more??

^{Netflix via YouTube}

Will Challengers Win an Oscar for Best Original Score?

Personally, I think Challengers should be nominated in every single category at the Oscars because it was probably my favorite film I saw all year. I know that won’t happen, but what could happen is a surprise win in Best Original Score after their win at the Globes. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross won for their work on The Social Network years ago, so it could happen again. Plus, “Yeah x10” is a total bop that deserves to be played on a loop on every gym playlist for years to come. Wouldn’t it make you feel like a million bucks listening to an Oscar-winner while working out? 

Who Will Win Best Picture?

With Best Picture–Drama going to The Brutalist and Best Picture–Musical or Comedy going to Emilia Pérez, it seems we have our two frontrunners going into the Oscars set. Last year, Oppenheimer was the undisputed frontrunner going in–this year, I am still mulling over who has the better chance. While The Brutalist won Best Director for Brady Corbet and Best Actor (for Brody), Emilia Pérez won Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldana and Best Original Song for its banger “El Mal.” The Brutalist is a three-and-a-half-hour epic about a Holocaust survivor that pursues the American Dream to become an architect, while Emilia Perez is a Spanish-French musical that follows a drug lord who tries to leave their former life behind as they transition into a woman. As we transition into a new presidency, I wonder if either film’s political relevancy will impact who ends up winning Best Picture. We’ll have to see how the rest of the race continues to shape up–but for now, I believe the ten pictures that will be nominated are The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, Anora, Conclave, The Substance, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, Nickel Boys, and September 5.

^{Still Watching Netflix via YouTube}

One More Question: Will Timothée Chalamet Bring Kylie Jenner to the Oscars?

They were at the Globes for their second time this year! Please, I want to see them together at the Academy Awards. They are adorable!